48 – The Marshall Report – Episode 48

Today is March 15th, 2017 and this is the 48th episode of the Marshall Report. Welcome to the podcast.

In this episode:

  1. The Americans are coming
  2. Who wins in a seller’s market?
  3. ETA Unknown
  4. 3 for 3
  5. Surge and frenzy – Believe it
  6. My February Report
  7. Key statistics from February
  8. School rankings
  9. The technology Supercluster
  10. How to buy in a Seller’s Market
  11. Holding offers
  12. Traveling is like being a homebuyer

Let’s get on with the show.

 

The Americans are coming

I had my first contact from some Americans thinking of moving here. I’ve helped bring a few families of Canadians living in Trump’s America back but this was my first American inquiry. They were concerned about having to give up their American status, afraid to commit to Canada. Americans, I did not know cannot be duel citizens.

What’s up with that?

I doubt they will move here. The devil you know always seems to be easier to deal with than a big change like giving up your citizenship.

Besides, the way Trump is going, there is no way he’ll do the full four years.

Who wins in a seller’s market?

Sellers do.

We are experiencing a severe shortage of listings here in Waterloo Region.

Yesterday I had two offers out on two properties – one sold for 19% over list price, the other sold for 26% over list price. (My clients lost out on both.)

I’ve been keeping track of houses of that my clients are interested in and on average they are selling for 15% over list price. I have tried to work out formulas based on best comparable recent sale, best comparable historic sale and others but it seems that home sales come down to one thing and one thing only. The person who most wants the house, gets it.

So, besides sellers, who wins in a seller’s market?

Successful buyers fall into three categories.

  1. Those who need a house and have lost out on offers already. Urgency is the key word here.
  2. Those who want a house and have money to burn. Money is the key word here.
  3. Those who think outside the box. The keyword is skillful.

All in all, the winning offer is always the one who wants it the most

 

ETA Unknown

In China they have high-speed rail. They also have the overnight trains. The high-speed rail will get you from the Beijing to Shanghai in 6 1/2 hours. The overnight train well it’s going to take a lot longer. Either way you will get to where you are going. You just have to decide what train to take.

This sounds like something like Seth Godin would say.

What I’m really talking about is buying a house this spring. If you are at the home buying train station you have to buy your ticket. You have to take the ride. You have to decide how soon you want to arrive.

Of course, you could always forget about the train and start walking.

 

3 for 3

Home sellers need agents that are good communicators

Home buyers need agents that are good analyzers

Investors need agents that are good coaches

 

Surge and Frenzy

The media was using the word surge to describe our real estate market in January.

The media was using the word frenzy to describe our market in February.

The real estate word of the month for March is either wow or unbelievable.

Believe it

Don’t say, “I can’t believe it”.

Believe it.

If I had a dollar for every time me or one of my clients said ‘wow’ after looking at a selling price, I could buy myself a really nice lunch, a new suit and some wireless earbuds.

Say ‘wow’ one more time, I dare you.

 

The February Report

As you may know, I have a spreadsheet, several actually. Since late last year, I’ve been keeping track of properties that my clients are interested in. The idea for me is to be able to better predict what the selling price of homes we visit and I research will sell for. If I can get good at this, I will be able to advise my clients what they should bid to win and thus win more homes.

Here are the five key findings from February

1) When bully offers are accepted, the seller receives less money than he otherwise would have.

2) Private sellers (who list on MLS) also receive less than those who had a realtor.

3) If you are interested in buying a home in Laurelwood, give up on rationality or logic when deciding on your offer price.

4) If you set the price too low, you will receive less than if you set the listing price as only reasonably low.

5) If you are not sure you really want the house, you’re not getting it.

You can read the full report at kwrealestatenews.com

 

KWAR Feb stats highlights

Rates and sticky prices

Interest rates are set to rise in mid-March. But prices are sticky. That means although prices may go up quickly, the stick for a long time to the higher price before creeping down again. According to economists, if we get a correction that will likely be a 5% to 15% price decline over the course of a few months, not bad, but not much in the face of an 30% rise over the past year.

The average prices for homes sold in February

Detached homes sold for $549,691

Townhouses: $388,721

Semi-detached: $369,624

Apartment style condos: $246,736

You can read the full report at kwrealestatenews.com

 

School rankings

For many years, I would look at the Fraser Institute’s report on school rankings with great interest, because I think good schools and great neighbourhoods go together. Good schools and great neighbourhoods go together like pen and page, like rubber and road, like sun and surf, time and tide, sweetness and light.

If you are interested in last year’s five year averages, click here (2016).

 

The Toronto-Waterloo Innovation Corridor

The Toronto-Waterloo Innovation Corridor is made up with four urban centres – Toronto, KW, Guelph and Hamilton. These cities all have higher than world average standards of living.

Read more about that at keithmarshall.ca

 

How to buy in a sellers market

How we used to determine a reasonable offer price cannot work in such a competitive market.

–> Predictive analysis

Read more about that at keithmarshall.ca

 

Holding offers

It started happening about this time last year – “holding offers”, or in other words, home sellers waiting about a week before looking at and accepting the best offer to buy. And that is what it is, an offer to buy. You get one chance and usually only one chance to put in your best.

Read more about that at keithmarshall.ca

 

Traveling is like real estate

This blog post argues that travelling in Chinese countries is like being a new homebuyer. Read more about that at keithmarshall.ca

 

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